Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 14.161705 16.069056 18.254289 20.969563 24.290479 28.270169 33.478512
2025-03-16 11.407154 13.673621 16.488778 20.323358 25.544688 32.621623 43.351564
2025-03-23 10.027254 12.458350 15.645314 20.273593 27.091696 37.261624 54.704598
2025-03-30 8.792628 11.194040 14.461474 19.427955 27.181732 39.634698 63.267362
2025-04-06 7.795134 10.106511 13.341075 18.433717 26.759419 40.968910 70.401363
2025-04-13 7.052521 9.285961 12.487479 17.684952 26.538119 42.515427 78.515349
2025-04-20 7.097699 9.584670 13.294249 19.637146 31.242870 54.422689 115.908349
2025-04-27 6.831729 9.388654 13.310505 20.271114 33.702201 62.730282 151.079757
2025-05-04 6.321582 8.774204 12.596423 19.528379 33.331966 64.641856 168.847516
2025-05-11 6.115244 8.611791 12.594654 20.054784 35.640291 73.784912 221.253863
2025-05-18 5.787070 8.229491 12.188281 19.769510 36.150399 78.516919 262.570288
2025-05-25 5.506754 7.903572 11.847596 19.563707 36.795953 83.918314 315.992574
2025-06-01 5.292339 7.683961 11.694831 19.758012 38.553902 93.942361 421.304128
2025-06-08 4.976726 7.276603 11.178639 19.156154 38.261439 97.367732 494.683095
2025-06-15 4.770899 7.039113 10.945787 19.110854 39.381428 106.420005 652.359594
2025-06-22 4.483943 6.646210 10.399087 18.332159 38.399744 107.181442 733.172225
2025-06-29 4.201617 6.246890 9.814988 17.415232 36.887130 105.290695 780.011209
2025-07-06 3.969541 5.923300 9.352544 16.723633 35.898638 105.305158 863.819599
2025-07-13 4.061726 6.167240 9.972938 18.524887 42.538719 144.267650 2273.606777
2025-07-20 4.000450 6.134852 10.058537 19.108542 45.724927 170.569799 4799.176829
2025-07-27 3.806713 5.854174 9.636145 18.424689 44.622555 171.330953 5960.118636
2025-08-03 3.747068 5.813460 9.688518 18.909450 47.614869 201.391133 17473.933045
2025-08-10 3.616448 5.636056 9.452774 18.646798 47.928286 213.813641 38412.877654